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| Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Chinese leader Xi Jinping at a summit of BRICS countries in Kazan |
D onald Trump’s diplomatic push to end the Ukraine war has Kyiv and Europe on edge, fearing a deal that could tilt in Russia’s favor. But beyond the immediate fallout, an unexpected power is growing increasingly anxious: China.
For years, President Xi Jinping has cultivated a close relationship with Vladimir Putin, forging a strategic alliance aimed at counterbalancing Western influence. Now, Trump’s overtures to Moscow—hammered out in Riyadh on February 18—threaten to upend that dynamic, leaving Beijing isolated and wary of a potential U.S.-Russia realignment.
China’s Waning Influence in the Ukraine Peace Process
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| Xi Jinping, who for years has assiduously cultivated a personal bond with Russia's Vladimir Putin |
Just weeks ago, Trump hinted that Beijing could play peacemaker in Ukraine, leveraging its economic ties with Moscow to help broker a settlement. That proposal aligned with China’s carefully curated “neutral” stance—advocating for peace while continuing trade with Russia despite Western concerns over dual-use exports.
Yet, Trump’s latest maneuver appears to cut China out of the equation entirely. Instead, his administration is engaging directly with Putin, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Keith Kellogg spearheading diplomatic efforts. Reports suggest the U.S. is exploring avenues for deeper “geopolitical and economic cooperation” with Russia, including pressuring Moscow to reduce its reliance on China, Iran, and North Korea.
Can Trump Drive a Wedge Between Russia and China?
Skeptics argue that a U.S.-Russia rapprochement is unlikely given Moscow’s economic dependence on Beijing. Since the invasion of Ukraine, China has been Russia’s economic lifeline, providing a crucial market for its oil exports and supplying key goods amid Western sanctions.
However, history suggests that geopolitical realignments are not impossible. The 1969 Sino-Soviet border clashes opened the door for Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger to orchestrate a diplomatic shift that pulled China closer to the U.S. Some analysts speculate that Trump’s team is attempting a “reverse Nixon,” seeking to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing.
“Our ties with Russia are rock-solid—BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and stable border relations prove that,” says Yu Bin, a Shanghai-based expert on Russia-China relations. “This bond won’t snap over a single diplomatic maneuver.”
Still, even a minor shift in Russia’s alignment could unsettle Xi. A closer U.S.-Russia relationship would free Trump to focus on countering China, a goal Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has already signaled by telling European allies that Washington’s primary concern is Beijing—not Ukraine. With tensions over Taiwan simmering, China must now question whether Putin would stand firmly by its side in a future conflict.
Beijing’s Response: Damage Control and Strategic Adjustments
Despite growing uncertainty, China has options. It could use economic incentives—such as post-war reconstruction aid for Ukraine—to reassert its influence in the peace process. Diplomatically, Beijing is urging all parties, including European stakeholders, to engage in broader negotiations.
Meanwhile, Kyiv is seizing the moment. After meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Munich, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that Beijing might be reconsidering its role in pressuring Moscow. “It’s the first time I’ve seen Beijing perk up,” he noted on Tuesday.
What’s Next?
Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy—focused on bilateral deals and economic leverage—has left Europe, China, and even Russia adjusting their calculations. While China still maintains a strong partnership with Moscow, uncertainty is creeping in.
If Trump successfully pulls Putin closer to the U.S., Xi Jinping could face a strategic dilemma: double down on Russia at the risk of being sidelined or recalibrate China’s global approach to hedge against shifting alliances.
One thing is clear—China is no longer just an observer in the Ukraine peace process. It is now a key player in a much larger geopolitical chess game, where every move could redefine the balance of power for years to come.
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