By Agboola Aluko | GLiDE NEWS – Lagos
I n a bold but controversial move that’s roiling financial markets and shaking the foundations of global trade, President Donald Trump has officially enacted a sweeping new round of “reciprocal” tariffs — marking a dramatic escalation in his protectionist economic agenda.
Announced on Wednesday, the tariffs impact a wide range of trading partners, including key allies and rivals alike. China, long Trump’s primary trade adversary, now faces a staggering 104% tariff on its goods — a direct response to Beijing’s earlier imposition of 34% retaliatory duties.
These newly imposed “reciprocal” rates — calculated based on each nation’s trade deficit with the United States — range from 11% to as high as 50%. The European Union has been hit with a 20% tariff, while Japan (24%), South Korea (25%), and Vietnam (46%) were also targeted. Only Mexico and Canada, both neighbors and top trade allies, were exempt from the recent wave.
This comes on the heels of Trump’s blanket 10% universal tariff — implemented just days earlier — which does not stack with the reciprocal tariffs. For instance, Japan’s total tariff rose by an additional 14% on Wednesday, not 24%.
In a fiery declaration made last week, Trump proclaimed an end to what he called decades of unfair trade: “Our country and its taxpayers have been ripped off for more than 50 years. But it is not going to happen anymore.” Speaking again from the White House on April 2, he doubled down, accusing countries like China of having “left us for dead, frankly.”
Rising Costs, Shaken Markets
While Trump touts the tariffs as a pathway to reviving U.S. manufacturing, economists and market analysts warn of dire consequences. Importers, rather than foreign governments, bear the brunt of the duties — and those costs often trickle down to wholesalers, retailers, and ultimately, American consumers.
The result? The nonpartisan Tax Foundation estimates American households will face an average increase of $2,100 annually due to the tariffs.
Markets have not taken the developments lightly. Since Trump declared April 2 as “Liberation Day” in reference to his economic strategy, trillions have been wiped from U.S. stock values. JPMorgan analysts raised the odds of a global recession to 60%, warning of widespread consequences including disrupted supply chains, decreased business confidence, and retaliation from foreign governments.
Boston College economics professor Brian Bethune issued a stark warning: “The probability of stagflation is 100%.” He predicted inflation driven by tariffs will start hitting consumer prices by May, with a sharper impact through June and July.
Goldman Sachs similarly raised its forecast for a U.S. recession to 45%, noting that Trump’s trade strategy may backfire if not revised. However, some analysts — including those at Morgan Stanley — believe the U.S. may dodge recession if trade negotiations begin soon.
No Sign of Backing Down
Despite pressure from American businesses and global leaders, Trump remains unmoved. He has rejected multiple offers from foreign governments to drop tariffs in exchange for reciprocal treatment, stating that deeper issues like currency manipulation, unfair taxation, and exploitative labor practices are more critical.
China, meanwhile, is not backing down. Vowing to “fight to the end,” Beijing has signaled even more aggressive retaliatory measures. Despite trade between the two nations shrinking in recent years, China still accounted for $439 billion in U.S. imports last year, making it America’s second-largest trading partner. The U.S., in turn, exported $144 billion to China.
While the Biden administration had previously kept most Trump-era tariffs intact, Trump’s new measures take them to unprecedented heights — making them the largest tax hike on trade in nearly 60 years, according to JPMorgan.
Economists like Colin Grabow at the Cato Institute say the long-term damage to U.S. credibility is substantial. “Trump’s actions have significantly hurt U.S. credibility,” Grabow said. “Businesses need a certain degree of certainty in which to operate, and Trump’s chaotic approach is not providing that.”
The ripple effects are already being felt. Importers are scrambling to find alternative suppliers in countries with lower tariff rates. Even America’s long-time partners are now uncertain of where they stand.
As the trade war intensifies, all eyes are on whether Trump will continue his hardline stance — or if economic pressure will force a recalibration.
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